The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index
July 2026 release
Uncover emerging trends. Anticipate shifts in retention. Keep your best people.
Employee retention outlook softens, despite gains in organizational confidence and culture
The Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index decreased 1.3 points this period, indicating U.S. workers are less likely to remain in their current roles over the next six months. The Retention Index sits at 104.2, its lowest point in 12 months. While the Index signals workforce retention will remain relatively strong by historical standards, this period’s decline is part of a downward trend observed since the third quarter of 2025.
While employers should continue to expect relatively stable retention in the near term, these findings represent early signs of increased workforce mobility in the months ahead.
Workers reassess their options as compensation sentiment declines and job market optimism grows
The Index’s decline coincides with a sharp drop in compensation sentiment and an increase in perceived job market opportunity. The Compensation indicator fell a significant 5.6 points, representing the only decline among the Index’s four indicators.
After reaching a multi-year high last quarter, the Compensation indicator’s dramatic weakening indicates that workers are placing greater scrutiny on the perceived value and growth potential of the compensation and benefits they receive from their employers.
At the same time, the Job Market Opportunity indicator rose 1.9 points to 100.0, rebounding after two consecutive declines. This gain reflects growing worker optimism around available opportunities in the market. As perceptions of external opportunities improve while compensation sentiment weakens, employees may be increasingly evaluating the benefits of staying against the possibility of pursuing new opportunities elsewhere.
Notably, these shifts occurred even as the workforce’s confidence in their organizations and perceptions of their organizational culture both strengthened this period.
Latest retention indicators
+1.9
Job Market Opportunity
Rebounds following two consecutive periods of declining sentiment
+0.9
Organizational Confidence
Rebounds following two periods of decline
+0.3
Culture
Continues steady upward trend for fourth consecutive period
-5.6
Compensation
Declines this period, the sole indicator to weaken
Key employee retention insights for Q2 2026
Generational divide narrows as Millennials experience a notable experience shift
Although the overall Index moved only modestly this quarter, the aggregate results mask meaningful differences across segments of the workforce. Last period’s widening divide between younger and older workers began to narrow as retention sentiment across generations became more closely aligned.
Gen Z reported a modest decline in its retention outlook (-1.8), while Gen X (+3.5) and Baby Boomers (+0.8) became more likely to remain with their employers. These shifts reduced the gap between generations and suggest workers across age groups may be responding more similarly to changing workplace and economic conditions.
Millennials also contribute to this convergence, with a significant decline. After several quarters of gains observed in the Millennial Retention Index, including a dramatic rise throughout 2025, Millennial workers reported the largest perception shift this quarter, with their Retention Index declining 6.1 points to 107.6. While a slight decline was observed last quarter, the magnitude of this period’s decline stands out among the generations.
Millennials are the only generation to report across-the-board diminished perceptions of their current jobs, with the Organizational Confidence (-2.9), Compensation (-5.6), and Culture (-5.5) indicators each declining. Simultaneously, Millennials report growing optimism about external job opportunities, with the Job Market Opportunity indicator rising (+1.5).
Emerging Millennial attrition risk:
Current job perceptions fall while confidence in external opportunities rise
Although Millennials continue to hold a comparatively strong retention outlook, the data shows a workforce growing less satisfied with their current circumstances and more optimistic about external opportunities. These dynamics signal a growing attrition risk among a generation that increasingly occupies management, leadership, and specialized professional roles.
Melissa Jezior
President & CEO
“Because Millennials increasingly occupy roles that connect strategy, leadership, and execution, declining retention sentiment within this group could create risks that extend beyond turnover alone. Employers may benefit from taking a holistic view of the employee experience, including career growth, organizational culture, leadership effectiveness, and rewards, to better understand the factors influencing retention among this critical workforce segment.”
Related insight:
Creating an employee experience that retains critical talent
This quarter’s findings suggest that retention risk may be emerging among mid-career professionals who increasingly occupy leadership and specialized roles. Organizations that understand and intentionally design the employee experience—from career growth and engagement to culture and well-being—may be better positioned to retain key talent and strengthen long-term workforce stability.
Track. Assess. React.
The first of its kind, the Eagle Hill Consulting Employee Retention Index tracks quarterly sentiment of U.S. workers across four proven drivers of employee retention, which compose the Index’s indicators:
- Organizational Confidence: measures how confident employees are in their organization’s future and their organization’s leadership.
- Culture: measures how employees feel about their workplace culture, connections, feeling valued and recognized.
- Compensation: measures how employees view their compensation, benefits, and ability to grow their compensation at their organization.
- Job Market Opportunity: measures how employees perceive external prospects for employment and job security in the near term.
As the Employee Retention Index increases, it signals an increase in workforce retention in the next six months. As the Index decreases, it warns employers that workers are more likely to leave their jobs, and organizations can expect more turnover in the months ahead.
Methodology
The Index is based on a monthly omnibus survey conducted by IPSOS of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults employed full or part time. Quarterly indices and reports are issued based on a minimum of 1,200 aggregated responses per quarter. Respondents are polled on a range of workforce topics including organizational confidence, culture, compensation, and job market opportunity.
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